Will it be a white Christmas in Birmingham this year?

Dec 21 2007 By Poppy Brady, Birmingham Mail

WILL Birmingham be swathed in a magical blanket of snowflakes on Christmas Day or will December 25 be soggy and grey?

That was the question put to the University of Birmingham's climate expert Dr Chris Kidd, who has been busy analysing city weather records for Christmas Days.

"With tempertaures warming up in recent years, this might suggest that white Christmases should be declining," said Dr Kidd, of the Climate and Atmospheric Research Group in the universityÕs School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences.

"But a look at the past data for Birmingham finds a total of only five white Christmases in the 50 years between 1940 and 1989. Yet in the following 11 years from 1990 to 2000, we had four.

"Temperatures have been generally increasing in Birmingham over the past 120 years, with the temperature for Christmas Day now typically around five degrees centigrade. Although since 1995, the temperatures on Christmas Day have actually been falling slightly.

"But it's not just the temperature near the ground that's important, the temperature of the air above us is critical along with, of course, moisture to produce the snow.

"Prospects for a white Christmas this year are difficult to guess - last winter was exceptionally warm with very few hard frosts, although we did have snow. The coming season should be colder than last winter with temperatures closer to, or a little below, normal."

So, if you're a child at heart, don't give up hope just yet, a white Christmas could be just around the corner."