Powered by Google

Record deflation figures expected

Official figures are expected show a record level of deflation in the Retail Prices Index (RPI) last month thanks to lower mortgage costs.

RPI - which turned negative for the first time in almost 50 years in March - is expected to fall from minus 0.4% to minus 1% in April.

This would surpass the all-time RPI low of minus 0.8% seen in June 1959. Office for National Statistics (ONS) inflation records began in 1948.

RPI deflation should peak in September this year, because interest rates were unchanged at 5% in September 2008 and are likely to be held at 0.5% this year.

After that, dramatic interest rate cuts in the wake of the financial crisis will feed into the index. But unchanged rates this year will create an inflationary effect, pushing the RPI back towards positive territory.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England's Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation benchmark - which excludes mortgages and house prices - is expected to ease down from 2.9% to 2.4%.

This is still above the Bank's 2% target for CPI, although the impact of the recession and easing price pressures is expected to drag the index well below this level later this year.

The Bank's latest inflation forecasts published last week have CPI undershooting the 2% target in two years' time even with rates at 0.5% and £125 billion in newly-created money pumped into the economy.

April's CPI figure should be dragged lower by falling utility bills this year - compared to hikes last year - while food prices were relatively flat compared to rises last year.

The inflation benchmark should also ease back as last year's oil price surge gradually falls out of the reckoning. This should offset the impact of a weaker pound as well as duty hikes on food, fuel and tobacco.

Share