City prof hopes for kidnap Brits

Jun 7 2007 By Tony Collins, Birmingham Mail

HOPE for the five kidnapped Britons in Iraq rests with whether his captors have achieved sufficient political gain, a Birmingham expert believes.

Prof Scott Lucas, a specialist on US and British foreign policy in Iraq, based at the University of Birmingham, said the kidnappers who struck in Baghdad on May 29 were probably one of a number of factions.

"There has been almost no signals from anywhere on terms of where they are being held, or by whom, but it's quite likely this is the Medhi Army.

"The problem is that there are splinter groups within the army who are trying to gain political influence, not only against the British and Americans, but also against other Shi'a factions.

"It's as if they are saying, 'look at us, we're tougher than you'.

"That makes the situation much more difficult because the Americans and British have limited back door channels to the Medhi Army."

Prof Lucas, an American who is based at the university's Department of American and Canadian Studies, said his impression was that the Foreign Office "do not have a clue" where the Britons are.

"It isn't as hopeless a situation as the Margaret Hassan case (the relief worker killed by her captors in Iraq) where they were taking a life for a life.

"They still want political influence because you won't get that with a dead hostage."

The missing Britons were seized from the Ministry of Finance after 20 armed insurgents marched into the building and led them away.

Prof Lucas believes the seizure may have been prompted by intensified operations by US and British forces in Baghdad and Basra, during which a top ranking Medhi Army official, Abu Qadir, was killed.